Weigh the evidence. Decide the verdict.
How certain must you be?
Imagine you hear a noise outside. Before looking, you might think there's a 10% chance it's a deer — that's your prior probability.
Then you see hoof prints. That's evidence. Hoof prints are very likely if it's a deer, and unlikely if it's a cat. So your belief that it's a deer goes up.
In this game, you're a juror. You start with a base rate — how likely is it that any random person committed the crime? Then you evaluate each piece of evidence:
Each answer shifts your belief. At the end, you'll see whether the evidence meets your personal standard for conviction.
We measure evidence in decibels (dB) — a way to add up how strong or weak each piece of evidence is. Positive dB pushes toward guilt; negative dB pushes toward innocence.
Before you see the case, decide how certain you need to be to convict. What false-conviction rate can you accept?
Your conviction threshold: 20.0 dB
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